Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska · Referee Marek Radina · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Zbrojovka Brno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zbrojovka Brno home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bohemians 1905 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Zbrojovka Brno
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mlada Boleslav · 0-2 (L)
Bohemians 1905
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Teplice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Plzen | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Artis | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.