· Analysis updated 19:34 UTC
Žďár nad Sázavou vs Chotebor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Žďár nad Sázavou and 1.50 for Chotebor, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Žďár nad Sázavou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Žďár nad Sázavou win
84.6% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Žďár nad Sázavou home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chotebor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Žďár nad Sázavou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 8% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Žďár nad Sázavou and 1.50 for Chotebor, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.4%
- 5–15.7%
- 3–15.6%
- 4–24.8%
- 6–14.3%
Recent form
Žďár nad Sázavou
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Havlíčkův Brod · 2-4 (L)
Chotebor
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Humpolec · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Znojmo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Velká Bíteš · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Třebíč · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Sokol Tasovice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Humpolec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Chotebor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Žďár nad Sázavou win, at 84.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.