Žďár nad Sázavou vs Sparta Brno Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Žďár nad Sázavou and 1.50 for Sparta Brno, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Žďár nad Sázavou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Žďár nad Sázavou win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Žďár nad Sázavou home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Brno away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Žďár nad Sázavou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Žďár nad Sázavou and 1.50 for Sparta Brno, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Žďár nad Sázavou win59%

Draw19%

Sparta Brno win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.6%
3–17.2%
1–16.9%
2–26.4%
2–05.7%

Recent form

Žďár nad Sázavou

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Havlíčkův Brod · 2-4 (L)

Sparta Brno

2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Havlíčkův Brod · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Humpolec · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie D table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kuřim	12	8	1	3	34	25
2	Sparta Brno	12	8	1	3	11	25
3	Tatran Bohunice	12	7	3	2	14	24
4	Velká Bíteš	12	7	3	2	8	24
5	FS Třebíč	12	6	3	3	-2	21
6	Havlíčkův Brod	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Znojmo	12	5	3	4	5	18
8	Sokol Tasovice	11	4	5	2	7	17
9	Pelhřimov	11	4	2	5	3	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	12	3	5	4	-4	14
11	Velké Meziříčí	12	2	5	5	-14	11
12	Humpolec	11	2	4	5	-5	10
13	Ždírec nad Doubravou	11	2	4	5	-7	10
14	Chotebor	11	2	4	5	-11	10
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	11	2	3	6	-3	9
16	Bedrichov	12	0	2	10	-41	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Žďár nad Sázavou win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.