· Analysis updated 05:08 UTC
Žďár nad Sázavou vs Velké Meziříčí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Žďár nad Sázavou and 1.60 for Velké Meziříčí, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Žďár nad Sázavou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Žďár nad Sázavou win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Žďár nad Sázavou home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velké Meziříčí away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
Žďár nad Sázavou
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Havlíčkův Brod · 2-4 (L)
Velké Meziříčí
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Kuřim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bedrichov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Velká Bíteš · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 0-3 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-10-12T08:15:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 2-1 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-03-09T13:30:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 6-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2024-08-04T08:15:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 3-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2024-04-14T08:15:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 4-2 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2023-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 1-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2021-06-19T00:00:00.000Z · Žďár nad Sázavou 0-5 Velké Meziříčí (Friendlies Clubs)
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Sokol Tasovice | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 7 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Žďár nad Sázavou win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.