· Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
Zebbug Rangers vs Fgura United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Zebbug Rangers and 2.04 for Fgura United, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Fgura United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fgura United win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 2.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zebbug Rangers home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fgura United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fgura United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 13% / 20% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Zebbug Rangers and 2.04 for Fgura United, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.5%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.5%
Recent form
Zebbug Rangers
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarxien Rainbows · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swieqi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naxxar Lions · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fgura United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsa · 1-1 (D)
Fgura United
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gudja United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Lucía · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hotspurs · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirens · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Zebbug Rangers · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Swieqi United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Pietà Hotspurs | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Mgarr United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Zurrieq | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Victoria Hotspurs | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Vittoriosa Stars | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fgura United win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.