Stadion FK Zeleznicar Pancevo · Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Železničar Pančevo vs Cukaricki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo and 0.84 for Cukaricki, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Železničar Pančevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Železničar Pančevo win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Železničar Pančevo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cukaricki away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 57.8% vs market 44.3%, edge +13.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +13.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.8% | 51.0% | 1.96 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 48.9% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 23.2% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 27.8% | 3.60 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -13.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Železničar Pančevo
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cukaricki · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 5-1 (W)
Cukaricki
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 2-1 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 0-0 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 2-3 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2025-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 1-0 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 2-2 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2025-03-30T17:30:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 1-2 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2024-11-04T17:30:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 0-2 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2024-02-17T17:30:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 1-2 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
- 2023-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · Železničar Pančevo 2-2 Cukaricki (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Železničar Pančevo win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.