Stadion Grbavica · Referee M. Kazlagic · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 0.80 for Čelik, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Čelik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 62.4% vs market 51.5%, edge +10.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 62.4% | 1.60 | +10.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.7% | 74.6% | 1.34 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.6% | 43.9% | 2.28 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.9% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 3.92 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.8% | 30.7% | 3.26 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 70.4% | 69.4% | 1.44 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 37.6% | 2.66 | -10.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-2 (L)
Čelik
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-1 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2019-11-03T15:30:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-0 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2019-08-10T17:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-0 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2019-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-2 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2018-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-2 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2018-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-1 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2018-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-1 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2017-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-0 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
- 2016-12-03T12:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-0 Čelik (Premijer Liga)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.