Stadion Grbavica · Referee N. Ljajic · Analysis updated 18:36 UTC
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs FK Sarajevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.30 for FK Sarajevo, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives FK Sarajevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Sarajevo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Sarajevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.30 for FK Sarajevo, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
FK Sarajevo
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornji Rahić · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Doboj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.