Stadion Grbavica · Referee D. Kesic · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.58 for Siroki Brijeg, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Siroki Brijeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Siroki Brijeg win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Siroki Brijeg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siroki Brijeg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.58 for Siroki Brijeg, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-2 (L)
Siroki Brijeg
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Siroki Brijeg win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.