· Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Sloboda Tuzla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.41 for Sloboda Tuzla, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Sloboda Tuzla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sloboda Tuzla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-2 (L)
Sloboda Tuzla
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomislav · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-3 Sloboda Tuzla (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-29T19:15:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-0 Sloboda Tuzla (Cup)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-2 Sloboda Tuzla (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-0 Sloboda Tuzla (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-0 Sloboda Tuzla (Premijer Liga)
- 2023-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-1 Sloboda Tuzla (Cup)
- 2023-05-28T15:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 Sloboda Tuzla (Premijer Liga)
- 2023-03-04T15:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-0 Sloboda Tuzla (Premijer Liga)
- 2022-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-1 Sloboda Tuzla (Premijer Liga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.