Stadion Grbavica · Referee M. Gigovic · Analysis updated 15:54 UTC
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.00 for Velež, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velež away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.26 | 71.9% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 75.6% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.81 | 50.5% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.93 | 46.7% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.55 | 25.4% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 55.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.07 | 44.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.21 | 74.8% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 53.3% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.5% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.72 | 24.4% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.22 | 28.0% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-2 (L)
Velež
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Čelik · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T18:45:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-0 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-11-02T16:30:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-2 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-0 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-11-10T12:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-08-10T19:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-03-29T19:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2023-12-08T17:00:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
- 2023-09-03T17:45:00.000Z · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-1 Velež (Premijer Liga)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.