· Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Zelzate vs Roeselare Daisel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Zelzate and 1.27 for Roeselare Daisel, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Roeselare Daisel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zelzate home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Roeselare Daisel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 31% / 28% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Zelzate and 1.27 for Roeselare Daisel, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 52.5% vs market 40.8%, edge +11.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 40.8% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +11.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 40.4% | 40.7% | 2.46 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 72.1% | 1.39 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.8% | 27.8% | 3.60 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | 59.2% | 1.69 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 31.8% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -11.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Zelzate
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Thes Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Knokke · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Houtvenne · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 3-4 (L)
Roeselare Daisel
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.