· Referee L. Dzivjak · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Zemplín Michalovce vs Dukla Banská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zemplín Michalovce and 0.75 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Zemplín Michalovce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zemplín Michalovce win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zemplín Michalovce home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Banská Bystrica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zemplín Michalovce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Zemplín Michalovce and 0.75 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Zemplín Michalovce
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Medzev · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava · 2-1 (W)
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vranov nad Topľou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Trencin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Žilina | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | Skalica | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Komárno | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 12 | AS Trencin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zemplín Michalovce win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.