· Analysis updated 23:40 UTC
Zenit Penza vs FK Spartak Tambov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Zenit Penza and 1.65 for FK Spartak Tambov, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives FK Spartak Tambov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Spartak Tambov win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zenit Penza home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Spartak Tambov away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Zenit Penza
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salyut-Belgorod · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 0-2 (L)
FK Spartak Tambov
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit Penza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SKA Rostov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 1-0 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 0-2 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 0-1 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 0-0 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 0-1 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-06-19T15:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 5-2 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 1-1 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 2-4 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · Zenit Penza 0-3 FK Spartak Tambov (Second League - Group 3)
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Spartak Tambov win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.