Zenit vs CSKA Moscow Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Zenit and 1.30 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Zenit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Zenit win

45.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zenit home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Moscow away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Zenit win46%

Draw24%

CSKA Moscow win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.3%
1–08.6%
1–27.3%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Zenit

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)

CSKA Moscow

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · Zenit 1-2 CSKA Moscow (Premier League)
2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Zenit 3-1 CSKA Moscow (Premier League)
2026-02-10T07:00:00.000Z · Zenit 2-2 CSKA Moscow (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · Zenit 1-1 CSKA Moscow (Premier League)
2025-05-14T16:30:00.000Z · Zenit 0-2 CSKA Moscow (Cup)
2025-04-30T17:30:00.000Z · Zenit 2-0 CSKA Moscow (Cup)
2025-03-01T13:30:00.000Z · Zenit 0-0 CSKA Moscow (Premier League)
2025-02-04T16:30:00.000Z · Zenit 2-2 CSKA Moscow (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-09-14T13:30:00.000Z · Zenit 1-0 CSKA Moscow (Premier League)
2024-05-15T17:45:00.000Z · Zenit 0-0 CSKA Moscow (Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	12	8	1	3	7	25
2	Zenit	11	8	0	3	12	24
3	FC Krasnodar	12	6	5	1	6	23
4	Spartak Moscow	11	7	2	2	13	23
5	CSKA Moscow	11	6	4	1	7	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	3	7	2	2	16
7	Krylia Sovetov	12	3	6	3	0	15
8	Baltika	12	3	5	4	2	14
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	4	1	6	-5	13
10	FC Rostov	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Rubin	12	2	6	4	-6	12
12	Akron	12	2	6	4	-6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	2	5	4	2	11
14	Akhmat	12	2	5	5	-2	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	2	3	7	-14	9
16	Fakel	12	1	3	8	-12	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Zenit win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.