Zenit vs Lokomotiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Zenit and 1.15 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Zenit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zenit home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zenit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Zenit and 1.15 for Lokomotiv, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zenit win41%

Draw27%

Lokomotiv win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.1%
0–19.4%
2–18.6%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Zenit

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)

Lokomotiv

2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Orenburg · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	11	8	1	2	9	25
2	Zenit	11	8	0	3	12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	7	2	2	13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	6	4	1	7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	6	4	1	6	22
6	FC Orenburg	11	2	7	2	1	13
7	Baltika	11	3	4	4	2	13
8	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	4	1	6	-5	13
9	FC Rostov	11	3	3	5	-6	12
10	Rubin	11	2	6	3	-4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	2	6	3	-2	12
12	Lokomotiv	11	2	5	4	2	11
13	Akhmat	11	2	5	4	-1	11
14	Akron	11	1	6	4	-8	9
15	Fakel	11	1	3	7	-11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	1	3	7	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.