Complex Sportpleinstraat · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Zepperen-Brustem vs St. Truiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Zepperen-Brustem and 1.72 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Zepperen-Brustem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zepperen-Brustem home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Truiden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zepperen-Brustem to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Zepperen-Brustem and 1.72 for St. Truiden, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
Zepperen-Brustem
- 2026-07-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Truiden · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raeren-Eynatten · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Munkzwalm · 8-0 (W)
- 2025-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Truiden · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Londerzeel · 3-3 (D)
St. Truiden
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.