· Analysis updated 19:30 UTC
ZESCO United vs Red Arrows Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for ZESCO United and 1.10 for Red Arrows, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives ZESCO United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ZESCO United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Red Arrows away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ZESCO United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 29% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for ZESCO United and 1.10 for Red Arrows, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.4%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
ZESCO United
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mines · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabwe Warriors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nkana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Eagles · 0-1 (L)
Red Arrows
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mufulira Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mutondo Stars · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Inate Rouge · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inate Rouge · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Buffaloes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.