· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Zeta vs Mogren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zeta and 1.01 for Mogren, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Zeta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zeta win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zeta home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mogren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zeta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Zeta and 1.01 for Mogren, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
Zeta
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mogren · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Berane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 1-0 (W)
Mogren
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Grbalj · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zeta win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.