· Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
ZFC Meuselwitz vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for ZFC Meuselwitz and 1.25 for Erzgebirge Aue, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives ZFC Meuselwitz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ZFC Meuselwitz win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
3.25 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ZFC Meuselwitz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erzgebirge Aue away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ZFC Meuselwitz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for ZFC Meuselwitz and 1.25 for Erzgebirge Aue, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 4–16.5%
- 3–06.4%
- 2–05.9%
Recent form
ZFC Meuselwitz
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Sandersdorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weissenfels · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Krieschow · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Empor Glauchau · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-3 (D)
Erzgebirge Aue
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-03T16:30:00.000Z · ZFC Meuselwitz 0-3 Erzgebirge Aue (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-09T14:30:00.000Z · ZFC Meuselwitz 4-0 Erzgebirge Aue (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-01-10T11:00:00.000Z · ZFC Meuselwitz 0-6 Erzgebirge Aue (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-13T15:30:00.000Z · ZFC Meuselwitz 2-3 Erzgebirge AUE (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ZFC Meuselwitz win, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.