Astana Arena · Referee A. Kuchma · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Zhenys vs Kaisar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Zhenys and 1.83 for Kaisar, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Kaisar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kaisar win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zhenys home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kaisar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaisar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Zhenys and 1.83 for Kaisar, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Zhenys
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Okzhetpes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 1-0 (W)
Kaisar
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaspiy · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Zhenys | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Kaisar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Altay | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Zhetysu | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Yelimay Semey | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Atyrau | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Kaspiy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Okzhetpes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Ulytau | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Astana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Shakhter Karagandy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | BKS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Irtysh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Karshiga Almaty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Khan Tengri | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Taraz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Akademiya Ontustik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Jaiyq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Jelaev Nan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Talas Karatau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Chromtau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 27 | Turan Turkistan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Arys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Ekibastuz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 30 | Jas Qyran | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Ansat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kaisar win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.