· Analysis updated 20:19 UTC
Žilina vs Zemplín Michalovce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Žilina and 1.19 for Zemplín Michalovce, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Žilina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Žilina win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Žilina home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zemplín Michalovce away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Žilina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Žilina and 1.19 for Zemplín Michalovce, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Žilina
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Vavrečka · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Podbrezová · 3-1 (W)
Zemplín Michalovce
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Komárno | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Žilina win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.