· Analysis updated 20:53 UTC
Zimbru II vs Spartanii Selemet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.92 expected goals for Zimbru II and 1.56 for Spartanii Selemet, a combined total of 5.48. That distribution gives Zimbru II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zimbru II win
78.5% probability
Expected goals
3.92 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartanii Selemet away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zimbru II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 11% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.92 goals for Zimbru II and 1.56 for Spartanii Selemet, a combined 5.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 76%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.5%
- 4–16.4%
- 3–25.1%
- 5–15.0%
- 2–15.0%
Recent form
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Cutezători · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FCM Ungheni · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zimbru II win, at 78.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.