Stadionul Zimbru · Analysis updated 12:58 UTC
Zimbru vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Zimbru and 0.95 for Dacia-Buiucani, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Zimbru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zimbru win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zimbru home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dacia-Buiucani away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zimbru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Zimbru and 0.95 for Dacia-Buiucani, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Zimbru
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-1 (W)
Dacia-Buiucani
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 28 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Sireți | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -33 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zimbru win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.