Stadionul Zimbru · Analysis updated 09:16 UTC
Zimbru vs Politehnica UTM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Zimbru and 1.40 for Politehnica UTM, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Zimbru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zimbru win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zimbru home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Politehnica UTM away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zimbru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Zimbru and 1.40 for Politehnica UTM, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Zimbru
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrocub · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-1 (L)
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | -43 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zimbru win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.