Stadionul Zimbru · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Zimbru vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Zimbru and 1.65 for Sheriff Tiraspol, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Zimbru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zimbru home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheriff Tiraspol away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Zimbru
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-1 (W)
Sheriff Tiraspol
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 2-1 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2026-07-12T17:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 2-4 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 0-2 Sheriff Tiraspol (Cupa)
- 2026-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 0-1 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 2-2 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-23T13:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 1-0 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 2-0 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2025-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 3-2 Sheriff Tiraspol (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-14T16:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 0-1 Sheriff Tiraspol (Cupa)
- 2025-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · Zimbru 1-2 Sheriff Tiraspol (Cupa)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.