Zira Stadium · Referee A. Aliyev · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Zira vs Imisli FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Zira and 0.96 for Imisli FK, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Zira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zira win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zira home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imisli FK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Zira and 0.96 for Imisli FK, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
Zira
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zira win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.