Zira Stadium · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Zira vs Qabala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Zira and 0.70 for Qabala, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Zira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Zira win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zira home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 30% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Zira and 0.70 for Qabala, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.8%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–110.0%
Recent form
Zira
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zira win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.