Zira Stadium · Referee E. Bayramov · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Zira vs Safa Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zira and 0.64 for Safa Baku, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Zira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zira win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zira home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Safa Baku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Zira and 0.64 for Safa Baku, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Zira
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
Safa Baku
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zira win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.