Estadio Ignacio López Rayón · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Zitacuaro vs Deportivo Zap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Zitacuaro and 1.43 for Deportivo Zap, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Deportivo Zap the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Zap win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zitacuaro home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Zap away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Zap to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 23% / 27% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Zitacuaro and 1.43 for Deportivo Zap, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–210.2%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Zitacuaro
- 2026-04-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Zap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Lobos ULMX · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-24T02:05:00.000Z · H vs Real Apodaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chilpancingo · 1-1 (D)
Deportivo Zap
- 2026-05-03T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Durango · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing de Veracruz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-22T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Tigres de Alica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T01:00:00.000Z · Zitacuaro 1-0 Deportivo Zap (Liga Premier Serie A)
- 2025-11-21T21:30:00.000Z · Zitacuaro 2-2 Deportivo Zap (Liga Premier Serie A)
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Zap win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.