· Analysis updated 02:41 UTC
Znamya Noginsk vs Baltika BFU Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Znamya Noginsk and 1.22 for Baltika BFU, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Znamya Noginsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Znamya Noginsk win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Znamya Noginsk home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Baltika BFU away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znamya Noginsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Znamya Noginsk and 1.22 for Baltika BFU, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Znamya Noginsk
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Vladimir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kristall · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 0-2 (L)
Baltika BFU
- 2024-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-10-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo Moscow · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva II · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Znamya Noginsk win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.