Stadion Znamya · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Znamya Noginsk vs Kolomna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Znamya Noginsk and 1.22 for Kolomna, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Znamya Noginsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Znamya Noginsk win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Znamya Noginsk home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolomna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Znamya Noginsk
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Vladimir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kristall · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 0-2 (L)
Kolomna
- 2025-11-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vologda · 3-5 (L)
- 2025-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo Moscow · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 3-0 Kolomna (Cup)
- 2023-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 1-0 Kolomna (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-10-30T10:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 2-0 Kolomna (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-08-06T10:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 0-1 Kolomna (Second League - Group 3)
- 2021-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 2-6 Kolomna (Second League - Group 3)
- 2021-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 5-3 Kolomna (Second League - Group 3)
- 2021-07-14T15:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 3-0 Kolomna (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Znamya Noginsk win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.