Stadion Znamya · Referee S. Kolesnik · Analysis updated 02:33 UTC
Znamya Noginsk vs Sakhalin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Znamya Noginsk and 0.63 for Sakhalin, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Znamya Noginsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Znamya Noginsk win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Znamya Noginsk home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sakhalin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.6%
- 0–018.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.6%
Recent form
Znamya Noginsk
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Vladimir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kristall · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 0-2 (L)
Sakhalin
- 2024-11-03T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula II · 4-0 (W)
- 2024-10-27T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-20T04:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Tambov · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kompozit · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-10-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Khimki II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-11-05T11:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 2-3 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-05-15T08:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 1-3 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-04-15T11:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 2-0 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-05-14T08:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 1-1 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-04-10T11:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 2-0 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
- 2021-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 1-0 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
- 2020-09-27T06:00:00.000Z · Znamya Noginsk 0-0 Sakhalin (Second League - Group 3)
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Znamya Noginsk win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.