Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków and 0.95 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Znicz Pruszków win

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Znicz Pruszków home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia Grudziądz away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Znicz Pruszków and 0.95 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Znicz Pruszków win64%

Draw20%

Olimpia Grudziądz win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.4%
1–09.9%
2–19.9%
1–19.4%
3–07.3%

Recent form

Znicz Pruszków

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)

Olimpia Grudziądz

2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Zabrze II · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 0-1 Olimpia Grudziądz (II Liga - East)
2026-01-17T12:00:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 0-2 Olimpia Grudziądz (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-04-28T13:30:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 2-0 Olimpia Grudziądz (II Liga - East)
2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 1-1 Olimpia Grudziądz (II Liga - East)

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.