Znicz Pruszków vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków and 0.90 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Znicz Pruszków win

56.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Znicz Pruszków home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Znicz Pruszków and 0.90 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Znicz Pruszków win56%

Draw24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.8%
1–111.4%
2–010.8%
2–19.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Znicz Pruszków

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.