Stadion MZOS Znicz · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Znicz Pruszków vs Stal Stalowa Wola Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków and 1.10 for Stal Stalowa Wola, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Znicz Pruszków win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Znicz Pruszków home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Stalowa Wola away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Znicz Pruszków and 1.10 for Stal Stalowa Wola, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Znicz Pruszków
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
Stal Stalowa Wola
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Resovia Rzeszów · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.