Znicz Pruszków vs Świt Skolwin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków and 0.63 for Świt Skolwin, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Znicz Pruszków win

77.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Znicz Pruszków home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Świt Skolwin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Znicz Pruszków and 0.63 for Świt Skolwin, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Znicz Pruszków win78%

Draw15%

Świt Skolwin win8%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

2–013.9%
3–011.3%
1–011.3%
2–18.7%
3–17.1%

Recent form

Znicz Pruszków

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hutnik Kraków · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 3-2 (W)

Świt Skolwin

2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	11	8	2	1	12	26
2	Tychy 71	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Górnik Łęczna	11	6	2	3	8	20
4	Hutnik Kraków	11	5	3	3	4	18
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	5	3	3	2	18
6	Olimpia Grudziądz	11	5	3	3	-2	18
7	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	5	2	4	4	17
8	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	11	4	4	3	3	16
9	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	4	4	3	3	16
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	11	4	3	4	2	15
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	4	3	4	0	15
12	Avia Świdnik	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Legia Warszawa II	11	4	1	6	3	13
14	Stal Stalowa Wola	11	4	1	6	-4	13
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	11	3	1	7	-3	10
16	Sokół Kleczew	11	1	5	5	-13	8
17	Świt Skolwin	11	2	2	7	-14	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	11	0	4	7	-13	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 77.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.