Znicz Pruszków vs Tychy 71 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków and 1.28 for Tychy 71, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Tychy 71 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Znicz Pruszków home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tychy 71 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Znicz Pruszków and 1.28 for Tychy 71, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Znicz Pruszków win32%

Draw28%

Tychy 71 win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.9%
1–010.2%
0–09.3%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Znicz Pruszków

2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)

Tychy 71

2026-08-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-04T17:30:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 1-0 Tychy 71 (I Liga)
2025-09-21T15:30:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 4-0 Tychy 71 (I Liga)
2025-05-03T17:30:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 2-2 Tychy 71 (I Liga)
2024-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 1-1 Tychy 71 (I Liga)
2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 2-3 Tychy 71 (I Liga)
2023-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · Znicz Pruszków 1-2 Tychy 71 (I Liga)

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.