ŽNK Mura W vs Hajduk Split W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for ŽNK Mura W and 2.50 for Hajduk Split W, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Hajduk Split W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hajduk Split W win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ŽNK Mura W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hajduk Split W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 32% / 19% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for ŽNK Mura W and 2.50 for Hajduk Split W, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 79%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Match result (1X2)

ŽNK Mura W win32%

Draw19%

Hajduk Split W win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

1–26.9%
2–26.9%
1–35.8%
2–35.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

ŽNK Mura W

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajduk Split W · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 1-3 (L)
2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordsjælland W · 0-4 (L)
2025-11-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Nordsjælland W · 0-1 (L)
2025-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo-BGU W · 1-2 (L)

Hajduk Split W

2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs ŽNK Mura W · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Wien W · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · ŽNK Mura W 0-2 Hajduk Split W (UEFA Champions League Women)

UEFA Champions League Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona W	2	2	0	0	9	6
2	Lyon W	2	1	1	0	8	4
3	Paris Saint Germain W	2	1	1	0	5	4
4	Bayern Munich W	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Arsenal W	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Inter Milano W	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Chelsea W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Køge W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Juventus W	2	1	0	1	2	3
10	SL Benfica W	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Manchester City W	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Austria Wien W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Paris FC W	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	OH Leuven W	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Roma W	2	0	1	1	-6	1
17	Häcken W	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Servette Chênois W	2	0	0	2	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hajduk Split W win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.