Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho · Referee Klim Zabroda, Ukraine · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.13 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Zorya Luhansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zorya Luhansk win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zorya Luhansk home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Zorya Luhansk
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 1-1 (D)
FC Kharkiv
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalynivka · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T11:00:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 3-1 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2024-03-31T12:30:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 2-1 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2023-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 1-2 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2023-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 3-0 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2022-10-28T14:00:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 3-0 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2021-10-31T17:30:00.000Z · Zorya Luhansk 6-1 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zorya Luhansk win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.