· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Zürich II vs Lugano II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Zürich II and 1.56 for Lugano II, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Zürich II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Zürich II win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zürich II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lugano II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zürich II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Zürich II and 1.56 for Lugano II, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Zürich II
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bellinzona · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grand-Saconnex · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kreuzlingen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradiso · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham · 0-4 (L)
Lugano II
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Cham | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Bulle | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Paradiso | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | YF Juventus | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Grand-Saconnex | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Basel II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Amical Saint-Prex | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 10 | Kreuzlingen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Zürich II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Breitenrain | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Brühl | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Young Boys II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zürich II win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.