Zvezda Stadium · Analysis updated 06:26 UTC
Zvezda Perm W vs Chertanovo W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Zvezda Perm W and 1.83 for Chertanovo W, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Chertanovo W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chertanovo W win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zvezda Perm W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chertanovo W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–28.1%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Zvezda Perm W
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Yenisey W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Krylya Sovetov W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 0-6 (L)
Chertanovo W
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moskva W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ryazan W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 0-1 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 1-0 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2025-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 0-1 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 2-1 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2024-07-27T14:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 1-0 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2024-03-30T08:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 1-0 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2023-06-10T11:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 2-1 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2023-03-18T10:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 0-0 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2022-10-28T11:30:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 1-0 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
- 2022-05-21T09:00:00.000Z · Zvezda Perm W 4-0 Chertanovo W (Supreme Division Women)
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 56 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 49 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 44 |
| 5 | Dinamo Moskva W | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Krylya Sovetov W | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 27 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -20 | 20 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -14 | 17 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -38 | 14 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -30 | 12 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 21 | 0 | 3 | 18 | -40 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chertanovo W win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.