Zvezda Stadium · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Zvezda Perm W vs Spartak Moskva W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.52 expected goals for Zvezda Perm W and 2.42 for Spartak Moskva W, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Spartak Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Moskva W win
79.5% probability
Expected goals
0.52 – 2.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zvezda Perm W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 6% / 14% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.52 goals for Zvezda Perm W and 2.42 for Spartak Moskva W, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–215.5%
- 0–112.8%
- 0–312.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–47.6%
Recent form
Zvezda Perm W
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moskva W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 0-1 (L)
Spartak Moskva W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 53 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 49 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 43 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 40 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov W | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva W | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 17 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -38 | 13 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 20 | 1 | 6 | 13 | -30 | 9 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 19 | 0 | 3 | 16 | -37 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Moskva W win, at 79.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.