Nova Arena · Analysis updated 20:56 UTC
Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Dinamo Vologda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Zvezda St. Petersburg and 1.20 for Dinamo Vologda, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Zvezda St. Petersburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zvezda St. Petersburg win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zvezda St. Petersburg home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Vologda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Zvezda St. Petersburg
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra Smolensk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Murom · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Vladimir · 2-3 (L)
Dinamo Vologda
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tver · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra Smolensk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Murom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-1 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 0-0 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2025-08-10T15:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-2 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2025-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-2 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2024-07-27T12:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-2 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2024-04-14T12:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 0-1 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2023-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-4 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2023-05-22T11:15:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-3 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2023-04-23T11:15:00.000Z · Zvezda St. Petersburg 5-2 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zvezda St. Petersburg win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.