· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Zvijezda 09 vs Leotar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Zvijezda 09 and 2.98 for Leotar, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Leotar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leotar win
84.3% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 2.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leotar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leotar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 5% / 11% / 84% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Zvijezda 09 and 2.98 for Leotar, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
16%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.1%
- 0–312.0%
- 0–48.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Zvijezda 09
Leotar
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Laktaši · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Famos Vojkovići · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Majevica Lopare | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kozara Gradiška | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Potkozarje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Rudar Prijedor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Velež Nevesinje | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 11 |
| 10 | Famos Vojkovići | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foča | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Omarska | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leotar win, at 84.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.