· Analysis updated 09:44 UTC
Zvijezda Gradačac vs Bratstvo Gračanica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Zvijezda Gradačac and 0.95 for Bratstvo Gračanica, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Zvijezda Gradačac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zvijezda Gradačac home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bratstvo Gračanica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.3%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Zvijezda Gradačac
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Travnik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloboda Tuzla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 0-1 (L)
Bratstvo Gračanica
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TOŠK Tešanj · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Budućnost Banovići · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tomislav · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 3-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2024-11-09T12:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 1-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 1-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2023-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 3-3 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2023-04-15T14:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 4-2 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2022-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 3-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2022-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 2-3 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2021-11-14T12:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 2-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2021-03-27T14:30:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 3-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
- 2020-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Zvijezda Gradačac 1-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
1st League - FBiH table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Posušje | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Travnik | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sloboda Tuzla | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Stupčanica Olovo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | Igman Konjic | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | GOŠK Gabela | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | TOŠK Tešanj | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Vitez | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Budućnost Banovići | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Rudar Kakanj | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Čapljina | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Tomislav | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.