· Analysis updated 13:05 UTC
Zvijezda Gradačac vs Jedinstvo Bihać Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Zvijezda Gradačac and 1.45 for Jedinstvo Bihać, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Jedinstvo Bihać the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zvijezda Gradačac home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Jedinstvo Bihać away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jedinstvo Bihać to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Zvijezda Gradačac and 1.45 for Jedinstvo Bihać, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Zvijezda Gradačac
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Travnik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloboda Tuzla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 0-1 (L)
Jedinstvo Bihać
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Travnik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sloboda Tuzla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Hadžići · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - FBiH table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Posušje | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Travnik | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sloboda Tuzla | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Stupčanica Olovo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | Igman Konjic | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | GOŠK Gabela | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | TOŠK Tešanj | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Vitez | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Budućnost Banovići | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Rudar Kakanj | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Čapljina | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Tomislav | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.