Sportpark Bergenshuizen Zwaluw · Referee A. Wolff · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Zwaluw VFC vs Rijnvogels Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Zwaluw VFC and 1.77 for Rijnvogels, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Rijnvogels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rijnvogels win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rijnvogels to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Zwaluw VFC and 1.77 for Rijnvogels, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 48% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Zwaluw VFC
- 2024-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs VV Scherpenzeel · 1-5 (L)
Rijnvogels
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Noordwijk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs UDI '19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vvsb · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rijnvogels win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.