Zwarte Leeuw vs De Kempen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Zwarte Leeuw and 1.36 for De Kempen, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Zwarte Leeuw the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Zwarte Leeuw to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Zwarte Leeuw and 1.36 for De Kempen, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 64% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Zwarte Leeuw win38%

Draw26%

De Kempen win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–08.9%
0–18.6%
2–18.5%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Zwarte Leeuw

De Kempen

2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Diegem Sport · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rupel Boom · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wilrijk · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third Amateur Division - VFV B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Londerzeel	30	20	6	4	44	66
2	Nijlen	30	19	6	5	20	63
3	Tempo Overijse	30	15	12	3	26	57
4	Schoonbeek-Beverst	30	16	8	6	24	56
5	Rotselaar	30	15	5	10	9	50
6	De Kempen	30	13	8	9	7	47
7	Zepperen-Brustem	30	12	7	11	11	43
8	Zwarte Leeuw	30	11	8	11	-2	41
9	Sint-Lenaarts	30	11	7	12	-1	40
10	Achel	30	10	7	13	2	37
11	City Pirates Antwerpen	30	10	7	13	-7	37
12	Turnhout	30	10	6	14	-1	36
13	Geel	30	9	8	13	-16	35
14	Lommel II	30	8	5	17	-12	29
15	Betekom	30	5	4	21	-39	19
16	Bevel	30	2	4	24	-65	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.