Alaves vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Alaves and 1.14 for Malaga, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Alaves to Win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Alaves win50%

Draw24%

Malaga win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.0%
2–19.6%
2–08.4%
0–16.9%

Why the model likes this

Alaves home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malaga away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Alaves and 1.14 for Malaga, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Alaves

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)

Malaga

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.